Have you ever considered the prospect of trading horse races overnight before. It certainly makes for an interesting twist on the more traditional methods, currently being utilized. I wrote in an earlier post about scalp trading, this method however, takes the form of a long swing trade.
If you look at the price of a favorite in a horse race, ten minutes prior to the off, we’ll note it’s price. Two minutes before the race, in many cases, that price has shortened in price.
Now imagine if, instead of ten minutes of trading time before the race runs, we have the luxury of fifteen or more hours in the trade. The chances are, during this time, we’ll experience a much larger price swing.
If low risk trading sounds of interest, lets see how this can work for us.
Although this method is really simple to operate, I think that it’s important to list a few requirements, that will make this work for you, or not.
- Betting Accounts with Best Odds Guaranteed Bookmakers.
- A Betting Exchange Account.
- Some time each evening from 6pm – 9pm. You’ll only need 15 minutes max.
- Some time each day, to trade out of your selections. A couple of minutes per selection.
- Access to a computer, tablet or phone.
If you can’t manage these requirements each day, why not start and just use the weekends, or your own days off.
So each evening, you’ll need to make a shortlist of your horses for trading. You can use the Betfair site itself or the Racing Post website. The most predictable price moves occur with non-handicap races. Make a list of these races, and then read the forecast and write up for each on the Racing Post race cards.
Provided your selections have a positive write up, are forecast favorites in the Racing Post, and are favorites on Betfair (or your chosen exchange) then we’re good to go. You should have two or three decent prospects each day, usually more at the weekend.
With our list, we need to check an odds comparison website, such as Oddschecker. We place a back bet with the bookmaker giving the best odds, ensuring we get best odds guaranteed. This process is repeated for each selection. I recommend a stake of 10% of your betting bank on each.
It’s wise to keep a note of your selections and the corresponding odds and stake. You’ll need it tomorrow.
Obtaining the best odds in this manner, provides us with value, and hopefully a larger profit. Obtaining the best value, is the key that gives us a long term edge. And long term is what we’re looking for.
So once the bets have been placed, that’s it until the following day.
The Following Day
Here’s where it starts coming together. From around noon, check the prices of your selections of Betfair. In most cases they should have shortened from the bookmaker prices that you obtained.
We need a calculator and a great free one is the Chromaweb Arb Calculator.
All we need to do, if you look at the image above, is enter your exchange commission rate at the top. Then simply add the odds and stake that you placed, the night before.
Then you add the current exchange odds, and click calculate. In the example above, we need to lay £55.55 at the current odds of 1.8 in order to make a guaranteed profit of £5.44 after commission. Once the lay bets have been made, then we can go about our business.
It doesn’t matter what the result is, we still profit.
Obviously if the odds haven’t changed, or they’ve lengthened, we need to close the trade, as above, and take the small loss. Not every price will move in our desired direction, but we get around seventy five percent correct. That’s enough to give us an edge.
Best Odds Guaranteed
If in the image above, we place our back and lay bets to make our £5.44 profit. It the price drifts before the race starts, we could make even more money. Firstly, our profit is already locked in, so there’s nothing more to do from our perspective.
If the price drifted out to odds of 3.00, and the horse won, we’d get paid at the new starting price of 3.0. That equates to a further £50 in profit, as well as the guaranteed £5.44. Now that’s a great bonus, and why we use best odds for this method.
Unlike matched betting, you don’t need to jump through so many hoops to make a profit. The advantage to us though, is that we shouldn’t get our betting accounts restricted. Considering around a third of favorites win their races, it means we’ll lose two thirds of races to the bookmaker. Of course we gain from the betting exchange.
For this reason alone, the bookies want to keep us as customers.
I’ve not found a more relaxed way to trade, and over time, it’s proven to be really profitable.
If you don’t have any betting accounts left, you may have been gubbed from matched betting, then you have a few options remaining.
- You could place your bets in the betting shops, and get best odds.
- You could place your bets with the exchange. You won’t get best odds guarantee though.
At least you can still get going, and still make money.
How Much Money Can I Make?
The million dollar question! The answer depends on your level of bank, number of bets, and skill at finding selections. To give you an idea though, with £50 stakes, you should be looking at circa £500 monthly. The more experience you get, this could be up to £1000 monthly.
As a low risk method of trading, It’s pretty good.
As always, start with paper trading and log your results. When you’re convinced of its effectiveness, start with small stakes. You can always build them up over time.
It’s well worth testing out, for the small amount of time involved, and the potential returns, It could add a great additional income for you. Whatever you decide, why not let me know how you get on, by simply leaving a comment below.