There are many ways to trade on the betting exchanges. I’d like to discuss the use of Time Decay, for Betfair Trading, in this post. Now I’m no expert on trading, although I am profitable and am aware of the sheer volume of trading methodologies.
Time decay is a fairly relaxed swing trading method. Unlike scalping, where we’re in and out of the market for a tick or two, with time decay, we’re looking to stay in the trade considerably longer.
The most popular sports that embrace time decay are football and horse racing. I’ll explain how we approach each.
Horse Racing Using Time Decay
A method that capitalizes on time decay involves betting on strong favorites, the night before racing. I could be deployed on the morning of the race too. I prefer to use Betfair, but many devotees use the best odds guaranteed bookmakers or BOG’s.
The trade is a simple one, you back with the bookmaker the night before, usually you won’t get prices until after 9pm. Between the early price and the time of the race start, we’d expect the price to fall. This is generally because the newspapers have tipped the selection, it’s strongly fancied and is being backed heavily.
The weight of money shortens the price, giving us the opportunity to lay the selection for a shorter price. The difference between the prices, gives us a profit. If you don’t have a suitable calculator, then I recommend the free Chromaweb calculator HERE.
As an example, if you back a favorite the night before, and lay before the off, here’s what the calculator shows:
As you can see, a risk free profit of £15.70 can be achieved from a single race. A handful of trades each day could really mount up at the end of the month.
Football Using Time Decay
Football is a little different. We generally use time decay during the ninety minutes of the match itself. You can use almost any market, but most concentrate on the over/under markets or correct score markets to make trades. The main reason being, is that these markets provide a lot of liquidity.
I like the under 2.5 goals and the 0-0 correct score markets. I back either the 0-0 or under 2.5 goals. The back part of the trade is made before kick off. I like to keep the trade open for ten minutes.
Provided a goal hasn’t been scored, the prices will shorten, allowing you to trade out for profit. Having researched the statistics over time, around one in ten matches tend to score in the first ten minutes. Provided you gain value, you’ll make your edge over many matches.
Hopefully the video gives you a better understanding of the trade in action. You’ll see how stress free the trade is, and how we made almost 20% on this trade alone. The simple methods always seem to work best.
We have to appreciate that sometimes we’ll hit a run of bad luck. I recommend that you use no more than two percent of your betting bank on each trade. If you use more, then you’re risking too much in my opinion. There’s no need to take unnecessary risks. If you look after your bank, the profits will trickle in very consistently.
There’s no need to try loss recovery, as this could also damage your bank if a few matches go against you. Level stake trading works best, and keeps your blood pressure in check.
Time decay is one of my favorite ways of trading. I find that longer trades suit me better than scalping. It’s a personality thing. I also find that beginners to trading seem to find quicker success with swing trades, using time decay.
What I really enjoy, is that you can use the cash out button to exit trades on football trades. This saves you using software, and the profits are fairly similar. This is an ideal trade if you’re using a mobile phone whilst out and about. You can simply use the Betfair platform to do everything.
Why not try the methods on paper before committing real money. You’ll soon appreciate how the markets move when no goals are scored. Without fail, you’ll also see how they react after a goal too.
If you need any help, feel free to contact me. Why not let me know how you get on.